Thursday, October 27, 2011

Stuff


Some interesting stuff out there in the baseball universe:
  • According to Baseball Think Factory, a well respected organization that produces the ZIPS projections, Jacoby Ellsbury has a 0% chance of hitting 30 or more home runs in 2012. In fact they identified that Marco Scutaro has a better chance (1%) of hitting 30 home runs. Considering that Ellsbury hit 32 this year that's quite the statement.
  • The Boston Herald believes that the Blue Jays are considering signing David Ortiz.
  • Seedlings to the Stars is very slowly counting down the Top 100 prospects in Major League Baseball, posting one well written article a day. 
  • The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has completed handing out their post season awards and Jose Bautista was named top player in the American League.  Some other noteworthy awards included:
    • Matt Kemp won the NL top player award
    • Clayton Kershaw beat out Roy Halladay as the NL's top pitcher
    • Justin Verlander was named the AL's best pitcher
  • For those who just can't get enough of Baseball Statistics, the MLB.com website has up to date statistics from the Arizona Fall League. 
  • Drunk Jays Fan is providing us with daily interesting links related to the Blue Jays 
  • The Blue Jay Hunter expands on my blog post regarding whether the Blue Jays should buy or trade for franchise players.  I plan to do a follow-up blog to my original post with a much larger sample size.  
  • According to CTV.com the Blue Jays had their highest ticket revenue this past season in over 18 years.  Also of note, the Blue Jays average TV audience was 507,000 viewers per telecast,  which is much higher than any other teams published viewership in the major leagues.  As a point of reference, this recent article which does not include Canadian team television ratings states that the NY Yankees have the highest average household viewership at 319,000 per game.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Stan Musial Award Ballot


Last week I did a post covering my ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) Goose Gossage award recognizing the American League's top reliever.  This award is part of the following selection of awards, voted on by 2 blogger representatives for each major league team, that will be handed out over the next couple of weeks:
  •    Connie Mack Award (top manager): announced today
  •    Willie Mays Award (top rookie): announce October 13
  •    Goose Gossage Award (top reliever): announced October 17
  •    Walter Johnson Award (top pitcher): announced October 20
  •    Stan Musial Award (top player): announced October 24
The Award...


Today, I will cover my ballot for the Stan Musial Award recognizing the American Leagues Top Player.  This award, unlike Major League Baseball's MVP Award, recognizes the top position player in the league regardless of how well his team performed during the regular season.  Also, unlike the MVP award pitchers are ineligible to win. 


Ballots submitted for this award must include 10 finalists are tabulated using a point scale of 13-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1, and the player with the most points after all votes are counted is declared the winner of the Stan Musial Award.

The Numbers...

I'm not going to get into great detail regarding the statistics I focused on for determining who I included on my ballot like I did with the my Goose Gossage Award post, however many of the same criteria applies in that I focused on statistics that reflected what actually happened in 2011 and not those that project what is most likely to happen in 2012. 

Additionally, the players defensive position, the strength of his defence and his overall offensive results all played a part in determining who I included on my ballot and in what order.  Specific statistics that I focused on included On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS (OPS+), Stolen Bases, Caught Stealing, Plate Appearances and of course, Wins Above Replacement courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, for which I have highlighted the top 20 below in Figure 1.

Figure 1 - AL Top 20 Wins Above Replacement Leaders
Rk
Player
Team
PA
WAR
1
Jose Bautista
TOR
655
8.5
2
Jacoby Ellsbury*
BOS
732
7.2
3
Miguel Cabrera
DET
688
7.1
4
Adrian Gonzalez*
BOS
715
6.9
5
Dustin Pedroia
BOS
731
6.8
6
Evan Longoria
TBR
574
6.3
7
Alex Gordon*
KCR
690
5.9
8
Mike Napoli
TEX
432
5.5
9
Alex Avila*
DET
551
5.4
10
Ian Kinsler
TEX
723
5.4
11
Adrian Beltre
TEX
525
5.2
12
Curtis Granderson*
NYY
691
5.2
13
Ben Zobrist#
TBR
674
5.1
14
Peter Bourjos
LAA
552
5
15
Erick Aybar#
LAA
605
4.7
16
Robinson Cano*
NYY
681
4.6
17
Alberto Callaspo#
LAA
536
4.5
18
Yunel Escobar
TOR
590
4.4
19
Brett Gardner*
NYY
588
4.4
20
Jhonny Peralta
DET
576
4.4
22
Kevin Youkilis
BOS
517
4.3

My Ballot...

The finalists in descending order for my Stan Musial Award ballot are as follows:

10. Ben Zobrist - Played multiple positions, 2nd base and in the outfield, stole bases, hit 72 extra base hits and didn't get enough recognition for his season.

9. Dustin Pedroia - This guys was such a pest this season, it even bugs me that I've included him on this list.

8. Evan Longoria - Forget batting average, this guy had a monster season while playing stand out defense at a position of premium.

7. Robinson Cano - 81 extra base hits for a 2b ain't too shabby.

6. Alex Avila - Finished 7th in the American League in OPS+ as a catcher playing almost every day.

5. Adrian Gonzalez - Led the American league in hits, 2nd in average, 3rd in OPS and OPS+, 3rd in OBP and among the best defensive 1st basemen.

4. Curtis Granderson - Piled up the counting stats with 136 runs, 10 triples, 41 home runs, 119 rbi's and 25 stolen bases.

3. Miguel Cabrera - No one in baseball got on base at a higher rate than Cabrera.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury - A number 1 selection most other years as the speedy centre-fielder known for stolen bases led the league in total bases in 2011

And My #1 Selection is...

1. Jose Bautista

I know what you are thinking, 'of course a Blue Jay Blogger is going to pick Jose Bautista #1', well hold on there a second, Jose Bautista simply was the top player in the American League.  Not only did he lead the AL in WAR, but he came .001 point from winning the American League Sabermetric Triple Crown.  That is leading the league in OBP, SLG and OPS, which he would have if it were not for a late season surge by Miguel Cabrera that moved him a hair above Bautista in OBP.

For those that argue that Jacoby Ellsbury was the better player because of the added number of steals, hits, etc., I simply state that Jose Bautista got on base 287 times, which was 23 more times than Ellsbury in spite of having 77 fewer plate appearances, and oh yeah, and Bautista also hit 11 home runs more than Ellsbury, therefore more power plus getting on base more often equals better hitter.

Friday, October 7, 2011

How The Best Players in the AL Were Acquired



Every off season fans of teams teams rest there hopes for the upcoming season on who their team can sign as a free agent.  However signing free agents often come at a premium cost and substantial risk, therefore is it really worth it?  With all the talk, myself included, of suggesting the Blue Jays going out and sign one of Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder as a free agent, I thought I would do a little digging to how the best players in the American League in 2011 were acquired.

The Hitters...

I've compiled a list of all the hitters in the American League that posted a 3.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) or better, which resulted in total of 37 players, and detailed in the chart below how their teams acquired those players:

Chart 1 - How AL Hitters with a WAR of 3.0 or Greater in 2011 Were Acquired
How Players Were Acquired?
Total Number of Players
Trade
19
Amateur Draft
13
Amateur Free Agent
3
Free Agent*
2
Total
37

Not counting teams that resigned their own players as free agents, surprisingly Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz were the only hitters acquired via free agency that posted a 3.0 WAR or better in 2011, and Ortiz first signed with his respective team as free agents well before becoming established players.

* Paul Konerko and Jhonny Peralta were re-signed by their existing team as a free agent and not included in these totals.

The Pitchers...

Similarly I have compiled a list of all the pitchers in the American League that posted a 3.0 WAR or better, which resulted in total of 28 players, and detailed in the chart below how their teams acquired those players:

Chart 2 - How AL Pitchers with a WAR of 3.0 or Greater in 2011 Were Acquired
How Players Were Acquired?
Total Number of Players
Amateur Draft
14
Trade
5
Amateur Free Agent
4
Free Agent**
3
Via Rule 5 Draft
1
Waivers
1
Total
28

Again, C.C. Sabathia, Brandon McCarthy and Freddy Garcia were the only pitchers to be acquired via free agency.

** Mariano Rivera was re-signed by his existing team as a free agent and not included in these totals. 

Moral of the Story...

Out of a total 66 players in the American League who posted a WAR of 3.0 or greater in 2011, only 5 or 7.5% of these players were acquired as Free Agents.

There might be something to Alex Anthopoulos' theory that the best way to acquire talent, other than through the amateur draft, is through trades.  At least this theory holds true above when it comes to the hitters, and even with pitchers more top players were acquired via trade than through Free Agency.

That being said, I'm a gluten for punishment an would still support either an Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder signing.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

My Goose Gossage Award Ballot

The Awards

The regular season is over and for fans of more than 73% of the teams in baseball it means time to focus on what happened to their team, how it can be improved, those bastards that actually made the playoffs and obviously most importantly...Award Season! 

Yes award season is just around the corner and I'm not referring to the awards that the baseball writers never seem to get right, I'm talking about the following, most respected awards in pro sports today, that are voted on by the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA):
  •    Connie Mack Award (top manager): announced October 10
  •    Willie Mays Award (top rookie): announce October 13
  •    Goose Gossage Award (top reliever): announced October 17
  •    Walter Johnson Award (top pitcher): announced October 20
  •    Stan Musial Award (top player): announced October 24
The Toronto chapter of the BBA is allotted two votes per award, as I assume every other city with one major league team is allotted, although I probably should check in to it to make sure that Boston isn't stacking the votes.  Votes for these awards are submitted by only the most respected bloggers within each city, with blogs supporting AL teams given a vote for the AL awards and vice versa, blogs supporting NL teams given a vote for the NL awards.  

As a proud member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance I have been given the honour of voting for the Goose Gossage Award for top American League reliever, which I get into greater detail today, and the Stan Musial Award for the top American League player.

As a Side...

Before getting into the candidates for this award I feel I need to preface something.  I was not looking forward to voting on this award and I will tell you why, there is such a split in the baseball world as to who should be the obvious winner of this award.  For most people it's a hands down no brainer that Jose Valverde should win the award, as they believe he has had one of the top 5 best seasons for a reliever of all time!  Jose Valverde was a perfect 49 for 49 in save opportunities and only one other closer in major league history has had a "perfect season" and that was Eric Gagne who was not only the best closer for that season, but also won the Cy Young award for his perfection.

On the other side of the coin new statistical metrics suggest that Valverde just isn't that good.  In fact, his Wins above replacement according to Fangraphs was 1.0, good enough to finish 19th among AL relievers, and his xFIP of 4.01 suggest he may even be a below average reliever.  So how could any sane, rational person vote for this loser???

The Numbers...

Whenever going through potential candidates for an award the first thing I do is start to compile the numbers.  Some of the numbers I feel are relevant to this award, in no particular order, include:

Save and Blown Saves

I know they are archaic statistics, however there is still some romance to getting a save and it is a statistic that is important to players and thus has created a mental pressure that some players just can't overcome.  Let's call this the Matt Thornton disease.  I believe that a closers job is harder than a set up mans' and therefore will give emphasis in voting consideration to closers and the number of saves vs. blown saves will provide a point of separation.

Shut Downs, Meltdowns and SD%

For those who aren't familiar with Shut Downs and Melt Downs, please take the time to go here and read up on the statistic. 

I believe this is a much better statistic to evaluate a reliever’s performance than the traditional saves and blown saves statistics.  It incorporates the real impact a reliever has on improving his teams chances of winning and likewise his teams chances of losing.  Therefore, there are no cheap shut downs and/or meltdowns.  Additionally, shut downs and melt downs can be applied to all relievers and are not just limited to closers.

Shut Down Percentage (SD%) is simply the total number of Shut Downs divided by Shut Downs and Melt Downs combined.

Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

WAR is all the rage these days, almost to the point where it is the only statistic that matters.  While I do agree with this to a point, I believe that there are some kinks in the statistic, especially for when you are evaluating pitchers.  The first kink is that there are two different versions of the WAR statistic out there, one that is used by Fangraphs.com and a different version, albeit with many of the same principles, that is used by Baseball-Reference.com.  The main difference between the two statistics is that the Fangraph’s version uses a more projective formula that identifies what a players WAR should be without the luck factor. 

The Traditional Numbers

I still believe in the traditional statistics when it comes to evaluating a players season, this means for a reliever I will consider the players ERA, WHIP and Strike Outs.  While I recognize that luck plays a factor in ERA and WHIP, these are measurements of what actually happened, and actual performance should be the most important factor for recognizing a player with an award.  Strike Outs are important because when compared with the number of innings pitched it identifies how dominant a pitcher was.

Oh and Wins and Losses offer very little in regards to evaluating starting pitchers and therefore offer almost nothing for relievers, these statistics were completely ignored for evaluation purposes. 

The Candidates...

For my evaluation of the candidates I began with everyone who qualifies as an American League reliever and whittled down the candidates. The chart below identifies the top 20 AL relievers for the Baseball-Reference version of WAR.  I've included this list along with all other important statistics because I feel it highlights well my final group of candidates for AL top reliever.

Chart 1 - Top 20 AL Relievers by Win Above Replacement (WAR) 
Name
Team
G
IP
K
SV
BS
ERA
WHIP
FIP
xFIP
FG WAR
BR WAR
Shut Downs
Melt Downs
SD %
David Robertson
Yankees
70
66
99
1
3
1.08
1.13
1.84
2.46
2.8
3.9
37
8
82%
Mariano Rivera
Yankees
64
61
60
44
5
1.91
0.90
2.19
2.64
2.4
3.5
37
7
84%
Jim Johnson
Orioles
69
91
58
9
5
2.67
1.11
3.22
3.42
1.6
3.2
31
11
74%
Alfredo Aceves
Red Sox
51
93
67
2
3
2.03
1.11
3.96
4.42
0.7
2.9
18
6
75%
Jose Valverde
Tigers
75
72
69
49
0
2.24
1.19
3.55
4.01
1.0
2.7
38
5
88%
Greg Holland
Royals
46
60
74
4
2
1.80
0.93
2.21
2.67
2.0
2.6
24
1
96%
Chris Sale
White Sox
58
71
79
8
2
2.79
1.11
3.12
3.00
1.4
2.4
28
7
80%
Jesse Crain
White Sox
67
65
70
1
6
2.62
1.24
3.70
3.86
0.9
2.3
25
13
66%
Vinnie Pestano
Indians
68
62
84
2
4
2.32
1.05
2.67
2.80
1.5
2.2
29
8
78%
Koji Uehara
- - -
65
65
85
0
1
2.35
0.72
3.03
2.33
1.3
2.2
23
5
82%
Scott Downs
Angels
60
53
35
1
3
1.34
1.01
3.29
3.40
0.9
2.2
25
10
71%
Grant Balfour
Athletics
62
62
59
2
5
2.47
1.03
3.77
3.57
0.4
2.2
32
6
84%
Joe Smith
Indians
71
67
45
0
3
2.01
1.09
2.91
3.57
1.2
2.1
20
9
69%
Aaron Crow
Royals
57
62
65
0
 7
2.76
1.39
4.11
3.34
0.3
2.1
19
15
56%
Jonathan Papelbon
Red Sox
63
64
87
31
3
2.94
0.93
1.53
2.16
3.0
2.0
32
4
89%
Glen Perkins
Twins
65
61
65
2
3
2.48
1.23
2.41
2.92
1.7
2.0
17
12
59%
Kyle Farnsworth
Rays
63
57
51
25
6
2.18
0.99
3.16
3.21
0.9
1.8
21
9
70%
Daniel Bard
Red Sox
70
73
74
1
5
3.33
0.96
2.96
3.05
1.8
1.7
35
11
76%
Casey Janssen
Blue Jays
55
55
53
2
2
2.26
1.10
2.45
3.04
1.3
1.7
18
4
82%
Neftali Feliz
Rangers
64
62
54
32
6
2.74
1.16
3.57
4.27
1.0
1.6
25
7
78%

Near Misses...

This was a much tougher decision than I thought it would be and feel that I should recognize a few players who I gave careful consideration too and in the end they just fell short of making my top 3 finalist list.  This includes Koji Uehara who absolutely dominated hitters at an obscene WHIP of 0.72,  Greg Holland who had the highest shut down % of any reliever with 24 shut downs versus only 1 melt down, and finally David Robertson who was in and out of my top three finalists up until the very end.  I could make a strong argument that David Robertson was in fact the best reliever in the American League in 2011, however, I just felt that by going in this direction I wasn't giving due recognition to 3 other candidates who I believe were slightly better.

The Vote - Goose Gossage Award...

Let me start by saying this, I believe awards should be given to players for their actual performance and while luck may have played a part in inflating someone’s statistics, they are a reflection of what actually happened and you can't change that.  Therefore for these awards I placed less importance on projective statistics like xFIP and Fangraphs version of WAR as I'm less concerned about whether a player will be able to repeat his success and more concerned with what they actually did.  So without further ado, here is my vote for the top three AL relievers in descending order:



3rd Place - Johnathon Papelbon

I'd hate to think that the final game of the season lost this award for Papelbon, but that just may be the case.  His shutdown percentage was second only to Greg Holland, he struck out an amazing 12.2 batters per 9 innings, and put up a mind boggling FIP of 1.53.  His traditional peripherals were dominant as well and it just might be possible that he was one strike away from getting my first place vote.  That's how close I view my top 3 finalists.

2nd Place - Jose Valverde


In the end, I just couldn't give Jose Valverde my vote for best AL reliever, however going 49 for 49 in save appearances shouldn't be taken lightly, as I said this is a feat that has only been accomplished once before in the history of baseball.  Also, he finished with a very good ERA (2.23), WHIP (1.19), finished 5th among AL relievers in WAR, and led the AL in Shut downs with 38.  I just think someone else put up a better season and deserved my first place vote.

My 1st Place Vote for the Goose Gossage Award for Top American League Reliever Goes To....

Mariano Rivera

To tell you the truth, I did not see this one coming.  It seems every year when I look at the end of season statistics I'm blown away by just how good Rivera was.  In 2011, in the toughest division in baseball, Rivera bested both Papelbon and Valverde in ERA (1.91), WHIP (0.90) and WAR (3.5).  He also finished with the 2nd most shut downs (37) and 13 more saves than Papelbon as Rivera tallied 44.  In my opinion, Mariano Rivera was the top reliever in the American League for 2011.