tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post2401925887337992590..comments2017-04-20T20:25:17.480-04:00Comments on Some Thoughts on Baseball: Blue Jays 2012 Projected WinsPeter DeMarcohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13025682416268680287noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post-43423302503035940882012-02-16T11:42:35.015-05:002012-02-16T11:42:35.015-05:00I'm a big fan of Brett Lawrie. But Evan Longor...I'm a big fan of Brett Lawrie. But Evan Longoria's 4-year average is 6.8 fWAR. While I guess a 6.1 is in the realm of possibility - I don't think it's fair to project/expect that from Lawrie in his first full season.<br /><br />I agree with the other commenters - it's pretty clear that these numbers are inflated/way too optimistic. But I think you probably already knew that..JJMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post-54621798974550096342012-02-16T11:33:45.875-05:002012-02-16T11:33:45.875-05:00Call me a fanatic, but 103 wins less a few sounds ...Call me a fanatic, but 103 wins less a few sounds GREAT. I'm glad the Blue Jays compare in projection more equally to the Yankees and the Red Sox. <br />What stands out to me is the lenth of Table 2 and Table 4. Then I look at the numbers above 0, and all signs point in the right direction.<br />John Farrell changed his rotation, I'll say, too many times. But if a manager is just trying to figure out the way his team plays, perhaps this is the way to do it.Mary-Bethnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post-24718500912026365652012-02-16T11:30:45.502-05:002012-02-16T11:30:45.502-05:0090 wins this year. And the Red Sox are overrated, ...90 wins this year. And the Red Sox are overrated, they're a couple injuries away from 4th/5th place. No depth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post-2581264476402343302012-02-16T08:38:01.850-05:002012-02-16T08:38:01.850-05:00Matt/Gabriel,
I agree with everything you have bo...Matt/Gabriel,<br /><br />I agree with everything you have both stated, a comparison against the Yankees, Red Sox and Tampa Bay would be a good measuring stick and as you have pointed out the Jays may still project to be the 4th best team in the division, there is an overstatement of playing time and can we really expect the Jays offense to go from an 18.4 WAR in 2011 to an 34.3 WAR in 2012?<br /><br />Personally, I think projections are a bit high for a few of the hitters, for example I would be ecstatic if Brett Lawrie put up a 6.1 WAR, however when I look at each individual players projection they don't seem to be that far off, so who knows?<br /><br />Will they win 103 games, I don't really think there is much chance of this happening, however I guess the most important thing for me is that after running these number I'm a little more optimistic than I was before.Peter DeMarcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13025682416268680287noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post-51476113963521983492012-02-16T02:44:43.956-05:002012-02-16T02:44:43.956-05:00So, the Fans are projecting the Yankees at 39.4 WA...So, the Fans are projecting the Yankees at 39.4 WAR for the batters, 22.8 WAR for the pitchers, a total of 62.4 WAR, or 11 wins above the Blue Jays. That actually seems about right. I took a look at the Red Sox, and they're projected for 62.9 WAR. I really doubt the Red Sox and the Yankees are going to win 114 games each, so it would appear that the relative values are fairly decent, but the absolute numbers are inflated.gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14807352308804721979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post-29930901147437899342012-02-16T02:35:53.351-05:002012-02-16T02:35:53.351-05:00I will say that the overall pitching projection se...I will say that the overall pitching projection seems right: does anyone expect the pitching to be worse this year? One could quibble here and there (Darren Oliver for 1.3 WAR?) but everything looks plausible, and more importantly, the overall number seems right.<br /><br />The real problem is the hitting numbers, and here I'm not sure I have much to suggest. I think the system encourages the overestimation of playing time (one estimates the most likely playing time, not the mean playing time expected) but I doubt that inflates value by beyond 5-10%. There's probably also a general optimism, but it's odd we don't really see that among our pitchers. <br /><br />One would be well served by seeing what the overall estimates for every team would be, then scaling the results to 81 wins. I'll take a quick look at the Yankees and post back here, so we can get a relative sense of what the fan projections mean.gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14807352308804721979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3221134868228038457.post-80145351196976132032012-02-15T22:00:29.704-05:002012-02-15T22:00:29.704-05:00I've done the same calculations and got the sa...I've done the same calculations and got the same numbers, the real problem with your numbers though is you have to use them in perspective because people are generally overly optimistic. I suggest you add the WARs of the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays to see how good their win total would be and then you know how much better the Jays are or worse than those teams based on the projection system you are using. You won't be able to pinpoint a win total with that method but you do know how much better the projection system thinks one team is than the other team and therefore you gain some perspective.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11745310082030693421noreply@blogger.com