BABIP and the Blue Jays

For those who are scared off or don't really understand the new fangled so called important statistics, BAPIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play is actually a straight forward fairly simple idea.  In layman's terms BAPIP is a players batting average when they hit the ball and it stays inside the park, thus strike outs and home runs don't count, but sacrifice flies do.  The idea behind BABIP is to understand how lucky or unlucky a player has been, because generally the percentage of balls that drop for hits should remain fairly consistant.  There are aspects that can influence the range of BABIP from player to play, such as speed and line drive rates etc. but whenever a players BABIP varies from his career norms it is mainly a result of luck.

So now that you have a complete understanding of BABIP, let's take a look at how this applies to the Jays players and who among this years team was lucky or unlucky last year.  Simply put, those in the chart below that have a BABIP below their career average (or negative variance) are unlucky and vice versa.

Toronto Blue Jays BABIP Ranked from Most Unluck to Luckiest

Player	2010 BAPIP	Career BAPIP	Variance
J. P. Arencibia	.136	.303	-.167
Aaron Hill	.196	.288	-.092
Edwin Encarnacion	.235	.280	-.045
Jose Bautista	.233	.270	-.037
Adam Lind*	.277	.303	-.026
Travis Snider*	.302	.320	-.018
Yunel Escobar	.296	.314	-.018
Vernon Wells	.272	.288	-.016
John McDonald	.260	.271	-.011
Jose Molina	.280	.286	-.006
Rajai Davis	.322	.326	-.004
Mike McCoy	.258	.246	.012
Corey Patterson*	.332	.298	.034

J.P. Arencibia had a small number of at bats which sometimes results in wonky results as shown, and I used his career minor league BABIP since 2010 was his only major league season.

For those that did not know, Aaron Hill's BABIP was historically low and what does this all mean at the end of the day? Most likely Hill and others with low BABIP's should rebound to their career norms next year. That if they had hit to their career BABIP averages this past year and all those balls that didn't get through at their normal rate actually went for singles, their 2010 stats should have looked as follows:

Ranked in Order of Highest to Lowest Adjusted OPS

Player	2010 Actual		2010 Adjusted
	Average	OPS	Avg	OPS
Jose Bautista	.260	.995	.286	1.042
Vernon Wells	.273	.847	.286	.871
Edwin Encarnacion	.244	.787	.278	.853
Aaron Hill	.205	.665	.278	.805
*Travis Snider	.255	.767	.267	.791
*Adam Lind	.237	.712	.256	.749
John McDonald	.250	.727	.259	.744
J. P. Arencibia	.143	.532	.247	.735
Yunel Escobar	.275	.696	.291	.726
Rajai Davis	.284	.697	.287	.703
Jose Molina	.246	.681	.250	.690
*Corey Patterson	.269	.721	.245	.673
Mike McCoy	.195	.511	.186	.493

If we remove the luck, all of a sudden Aaron Hill's season doesn't look so bad and maybe Edwin Encarnacion at DH isn't the worst idea in the world.  As well, Corey Patterson still shouldn't be on a major league roster for his hitting abilities.

Jays Lineup is Set, Like it or Not

Manny Ramirez grew up a Jays fan watching his idols George Bell, Tony Fernandez and other Dominicans playing for his countries adopted team in Canada.  He came close to signing with Toronto a few years ago but ownership wouldn't give JP Ricciardi the money he asked for, now the price tag has dropped and his desire to play for Toronto hasn't change.  Wouldn't it be fun to see Manny Ramirez in a Toronto uniform this season, unfortunately it's not going to happen, Jim Thome isn't coming here either because like it or not the Blue Jays will most likely start the season with a lineup made up of players already under the teams control.

Let's start with the obvious suspects, Vernon Wells will be in center field, Yunel Escobar will be manning SS, Travis Snider will finally be playing everyday in one of the corner outfield spots, the Catcher position will be filled by JP Arencibia with Jose Molina backing him up, and despite what you hear about a possible move to 3B Aaron Hill will be back at 2b.  This leaves 1B, 3B, DH and the other corner outfield spot as the frequently debated positions that offer hope to some fans that the missing piece is out there ready to sign and make 2011 a glorious season.  In reality, those spots will be filled as follows:

1st Base

Here is a recent quote from Alex Anthopoulos:

“We have Adam under control for six years, if we can get Adam acclimated enough to be able to become an everyday first baseman — and that is a big, big if — [there is] roster flexibility that we’re going to have going forward to have that DH spot open and available for years to come.”

Sounds to me like they are going to give Adam Lind every chance to play 1B this season.  What if he fails you ask?  Well that brings me to the DH.

Designated Hitter

Alex Anthopolous had this to say:

“A DH that doesn’t have the ability to play first base, knowing where our thought process is with the construction of the club, I think people can draw their own conclusions and put the pieces of the puzzle together,”

A few days after making this comment the Jays signed Edwin Encarnacion to a 1 year $2.5 million contract plus $3.5 million option.  This folks is your Toronto Blue Jays 2011 designated hitter and back up 1st baseman if Adam Lind can't handle the position.  The good news is that if you take Encarnacion's production last year and expand it over a full season, you get a 36 home run hitter.  Could he be this years Jose Bautista?  Probably not, but at the very least as Getting Blanked pointed out he should be as productive as Adam LaRoche who the Nationals signed for a lot more.

3rd Base

This one may be the most straight forward as Alex Anthopoulos indicated last week that Jose Bautista is likely to play 3rd base for the Jays this season

The other Corner OF Spot

We've already determined that Travis Snider will play one of the corner outfield spots, most likely LF.  So who plays the other?  Well, one of Anthopoulos' first moves this off season was dealing for Oakland's Rajai Davis who is arbitration eligible and due a raise on the $1.35 million he made last year, an amount that indicates the Jays didn't pick him up to be the back-up guy. That position will most likely go to recently acquired Corey Patterson.

So there you have it, your Toronto Blue Jays 2011 starting line-up:

Catcher - JP Arencibia
1st Base - Adam Lind
2nd Base - Aaron Hill
Short Stop - Yunel Escobar
3rd Base - Jose Bautista
Left Field - Travis Snider
Centre Field - Vernon Wells
Right Field - Rajai Davis
Designated Hitter - Edwin Encarnacion

What to Expect From J.P. Arencibia

I'm going to be honest with you, I just finished reading this Globe and Mail Article on how the catchers spot for the Jays is J.P. Arencibia's to lose and was inspired to write a blog about why Arencibia is over rated and will most likely flop. I was armed with all sorts of ideas to build my case like his poor OBP in the minors, high strike out rate, inflated stats from playing in Las Vegas, he's Rod Barajas in John Buck's clothing, his poor game calling and defensive abilities etc. Then I did some research to build my case.

Poor OBP

If you don't know by now, Baseball-Reference.com is the shit for baseball statistics, so my first visit was there to look at Arencibia's minor league numbers. Sure enough I found a career OBP of .319, however this wasn't as bad as I was expecting, especially when you consider his .284 OBP in 2009 bringing down his overall average. Also, he had a .359 OBP last year. But this was Vegas right and his BABIP of .312 was on the high side (which really it isn't given past results of .325, .344, and .311). Now I'm thinking a .319 OBP is probably achievable in the majors, and with his power potential, that's not terrible.

High Strike Out Rate

Really I'd be a bit of a hypocrite if I harped too much about someones high strike out rate, because in the past I've consistently argued that strike outs are just another form of an out and if they are getting on base at an acceptable rate, it's not a big deal if they strike out a lot. However, if a player strikes out a lot in the minors, that could mean that there is a hole in his swing that major league pitching will expose. Only time will tell here.

Inflated Las Vegas Stats

Arencibia had a monster season in 2010, but who doesn't when they play in the PCL league and especially Vegas. Well, interestingly enough, Arencibia had the highest OPS (.986) of any of his Vegas teammates with regular playing time, this must count for something right? Then I looked at his splits for 2010 and found this:

J.P. Arencibia	Avg	AB	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	.276	217	16	.343	.581	.924
Road	.328	195	16	.378	.677	1.055

Arencibia was actually a better hitter on the road last season, yes it is still other PCL ballparks, but in my mind this removes some of the worry that his numbers were a direct result of his environment, and after all, he did win the league MVP.

Defense and Game Calling

This may be his Achilles heel, however scouting reports vary on his abilities behind the plate and Baseball America believes his defense is improving, he's still young and he did throw out 33% of runners last year. Since this is a building year for the Jays they have time to work on his abilities and find out if his future is behind the plate.

To make a long story even longer...

I'm a lot more positive about Arencibia's future then I was a few hours ago. I still think he's a long way from a sure thing, but it should be fun to watch and find out.

Righty Lefty Closer Combination for Your Toronto Blue Jays?

According to Ken Davidoff the Blue Jays have interest in Brian Fuentes, which when you think about it would make complete sense. A Brian Fuentes and Octavio Dotel two headed monster closer combination could be the most dominant closer combination of all time, well on paper at least. Fuentes dominated lefties last season and Dotel dominated righties, but neither did all that well against the opposite side of the plate.

Let's take a look at how each side of the plate fared against these pitchers:

Player	OPS against by Right-handed Batters in 2010	OPS against by Left-handed Batters in 2010
Octavio Dotel	.576	.993
Brian Fuentes	.696	.371

If Dotel were to only face righties and Fuentes lefties last year and you combined these totals, this would have resulted in a hitters OPS against of .526. As a comparison hitters have a career .552 OPS against Mariano Rivera.  Unfortunately the last time I checked teams were allowed to pinch hit and each team requires three outs to complete an inning.

Stuff

1. Fan Favourite and author Dirk Hayhurst will not be back with the Blue Jays next year as he has announced on his blog.

2. Jays made a low risk high reward signing, inking Chad Cordero to a minor league deal.  I like these types of deals, but don't get your hopes up.

3. Octavio Dotel will make $3 million in 2011 not $3.5 million according to BlueJays.com.

4. Making the Dotel signing look genuis, the Orioles locked up Kevin Gregg to a 2 year $10 million contract.  So much for the belief that you shouldn't overpay for mediocre players.

5. Is it really worth the risk to sign a player  who you already have under control for the next five years to such a big contract?  I guess the Rockies aren't too concerned about that high BABIP for Carlos Gonzalez last year.  Extending someone after a season like he had is rarely a good idea.

6. The Nationals just got Edwin Encarnacion type production for the low low price of $16 million.  On an unrelated note the entire Baltimore Washington region's water supply has been effected by a toxin that results in people making bad decisions.

7. Rangers designate one time top prospect catcher Max Ramirez for assignment.  Could this be another low risk high reward opportunity for the Jays?

The 5th Starter

As it stands now it appears the Blue Jays rotation is set up as follows:

1. Ricky Romero

2. Brandon Morrow

3. Brett Cecil

4. Kyle Drabek

5. Unkown?

One could argue that Kyle Drabek's spot in the rotation isn't quite set in stone at this point, however let's move past that debate and focus on the potential 5th starter options for the Blue Jays.  The leading options currently include; Marc Rzepczynski, Zach Stewart, Jesse Litsch, Robert Ray, Scott Richmond, Dustin McGowan  or the potential acquisition of another pitcher through trade or free agency.

If we consider the 2011 Blue Jay season as another year of development, then we should use this 5th starter spot to see what we currently have in our system that could help us in the long run.  If we think the Jays are serious competitors, then you'd probably want to look outside the organization to get another proven starter, and a few other players while your at it.  Since the later isn't all that likely, which of the above pitchers would you want to see given a shot at the 5th starter. 

I personally think we've seen enough of Scott Richmond to know that he's never going to be more than an emergency spot starter and until Dustin McGowan can prove he's healthy he can't be counted on so let's take them out of the mix, leaving us with the following:

Jessie Litsch - I remember telling anyone who would listen after his 13-9 2008 season that the Jays should sell high on this kid, there is no way he's ever going to match that kind of success again.  Sure enough he hasn't pitched well since, but it was because of injury and now that he's healthy his name is getting bandied about once again.  Still, he was pretty awful in both the minors and the majors last season before getting shut down once again and I think he needs to prove he can be effective in the minors before ever getting another shot in the majors.  Even with success in the minors, the most I'd really want to see out of him is a middle relief role, something in the fashion of Dennis Lamp circa 1985, something Litsch could actually be quite good at.  What ever happened to that type of role anyway?

Marc Rzepczynski - I gotta figure out a short form for this guy that doesn't sound gay.  This guy doesn't have great stuff and has had some mixed results in his major league career including some control issues this year which seemed to improve as the season went on.  He finished off the 2011 season with a stellar Arizona Fall League showing which the Bleacher Report sums up nicely.  He has had a history of great numbers in the minors prior to this season in which he may have been hindered by an injury, and his K to inning ratio has always stood out.  Maybe there is something here?

Zach Stewart - I keep reading how great his stuff is, but maybe he's a reliever, his 2010 season was disappointing, etc.  Whatever he is, he doesn't appear to have figured it out just yet and throwing him into a major league rotation may be too much.  Keep him in the minors for now.

Robert Ray - I'm underwhelmed with his results, and according to a scouting report he lacks stamina to be a starter and an out pitch.  Let's call him the back up plan, ahead of Scott Richmond.

You hate to pencil in a rotation before spring training even starts, however unless the Jays go outside the organization to add a another pitcher, the only option for a fifth starter that I want to see is Mark Rzepczynski.  Give him a long look this year and find out what you have in him, and if it's not much, this is the year to find out.  My second in house choice might actually be Deck Mcguire as we keep hearing how major league ready this guy is, so why not, it worked for Mike Leake.

Dotel Gregg Comparison

With the Blue Jays signing Octavio Dotel my first impression was pretty much that this is the same type of signing as the Jays made when they signed Kevin Gregg last offseason.  However, it appears that the general consensus among Jays fans is that the Octavio Dotel signing is much worse than the Kevin Gregg deal.  So let's take a look at the two pitchers prior to signing with the Jays:

Category	Octavio Dotel 2010	Kevin Gregg 2009
IP	64	68
ERA	4.08	4.72
WHIP	1.313	1.311
K’s/9	10.5	9.3
BB/9	4.5	3.9
HR/9	1.3	1.7
WAR	0.4	-0.1

Looking at the above the two players had very similar years prior to signing on as the Jays new closer, if I had to give an edge to one of the above seasons I'd have to go with Dotel's.  What is not shown here is that Dotel is five years older than Gregg at the time of their signings, therefore there is a greater risk of decline in the following season due to age.  However for one season I don't believe that is a great risk.  Now let's take a look at their career stats prior to joining the Jays.

Category	Octavio Dotel Career Prior to Jays	Kevin Gregg Career Prior to Jays
IP	630	343
ERA	3.75	4.10
WHIP	1.256	1.32
K’s/9	10.9	8.26
BB/9	4.1	3.6
HR/9	1.2	0.9
WAR	14.2	4.0

I know Dotel's numbers are helped by some stellar seasons early in his career, however his 2010 numbers are fairly similar his career totals.  When comparing the two, Dotel has had the more impressive career and an argument could be made that he would be the better choice as closer for the Jays.  However I'll stick to my original assessment that these two signings are comparable and expected results should be similar.