Saturday, January 1, 2011

Dotel Gregg Comparison


With the Blue Jays signing Octavio Dotel my first impression was pretty much that this is the same type of signing as the Jays made when they signed Kevin Gregg last offseason.  However, it appears that the general consensus among Jays fans is that the Octavio Dotel signing is much worse than the Kevin Gregg deal.  So let's take a look at the two pitchers prior to signing with the Jays:

Category
IP
64
68
ERA
4.08
4.72
WHIP
1.313
1.311
K’s/9
10.5
9.3
BB/9
4.5
3.9
HR/9
1.3
1.7
WAR
0.4
-0.1


Looking at the above the two players had very similar years prior to signing on as the Jays new closer, if I had to give an edge to one of the above seasons I'd have to go with Dotel's.  What is not shown here is that Dotel is five years older than Gregg at the time of their signings, therefore there is a greater risk of decline in the following season due to age.  However for one season I don't believe that is a great risk.  Now let's take a look at their career stats prior to joining the Jays.

Category
Octavio Dotel Career Prior to Jays
Kevin Gregg Career Prior to Jays
IP
630
343
ERA
3.75
4.10
WHIP
1.256
1.32
K’s/9
10.9
8.26
BB/9
4.1
3.6
HR/9
1.2
0.9
WAR
14.2
4.0


I know Dotel's numbers are helped by some stellar seasons early in his career, however his 2010 numbers are fairly similar his career totals.  When comparing the two, Dotel has had the more impressive career and an argument could be made that he would be the better choice as closer for the Jays.  However I'll stick to my original assessment that these two signings are comparable and expected results should be similar.

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